Per Capita Wine Consumption in China
This month, Zhongguo Wine is asking the questions everybody wants to be answered: What is the wine comsumption in China and what is the actual potential? To do so, we asked an expert, Dr. Zsombor Sümegi Ph.D.
First question: how much is the average per capita wine consumption in China?
It is not easy to find reliable information about wine consumption of China. I have compared more databases, like Access Asia, OIV and Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation to clear this question. Data of these databases are shown in the table below.
The table shows that real Chinese population was 1,318 billion people in 2007 [2007 – World population data sheet, 2007], which differs from the calculated OIV result, 1,51 billion (calculation is based on the average consumption per capita and total wine consumption). OIV result is 15 percent higher than it is expected by the real population in 2007. AWBC calculation results are much closer to the statistics made by the independent Access Asia Limited company. As a result, I can say that the per capita consumption was around 0,61-0,65 liter per person in China in 2007. In the view of the statistical researches and trends of market development, the possible per capita consumption may have been around 0,8 liter in 2009.
How many potential consumers we have in China?
Consumption has an unequal distribution in China. There are significant differences in consumption between different regions and provinces of China, even not every Chinese drinking wine.
As a result of Table 1. and second calculation of the correlation analysis I can say that higher educated people usually live in cities, while employees in the third sector have a higher salary then workers in other sectors. Based on these results I have calculated number of potential consumers between the middle and high educated, 25-54 age old people, living in urban and rural areas. I have used to calculate potential consumer number by the following formula:
Value of ‘r’ means the share of man age of 25-54 in the total population age of 15-64. Value ‘r’ was calculated with the formula below:
| r = | ∑Xi | i=25…54 | |
| ∑Yj | j=15…64 |
Calculation based on the 2005 census. The result of the formula is 59,5 million men.
Since 70 percent of Chinese alcohol consumers are men [WHO Global status on alcohol, 2004], I can say, that in 2005 number of total wine consumers was app. 90 million in China.
Since Chinese wine consumption has duplicated in volume between 2005 and 2010, [China Wine Market Competitor Analysis April 2010, 2010] I can say that the number of potential consumers were around 200 million in 2010. Average consumption calculated only for the mentioned potential consumers (200 million) is around 5,5 liters per capita.
About the author: Dr. Zsombor Sümegi Ph.D. is living in Hungary and studied at the Budapest University of Economic Sciences. After a few years of international carrier he joined the familiy winery in 2003. Sümegi and Sons Winery is located in Hungary, right at the Danube river, 150 km south from the capital Budapest. The owner, Dr. Jozsef Sümegi (founder and former leader of the Winegrowers Association of Hungary and Hungarian Wine Academy) is now for more than 50 years making wines. The family has made the first icewine and herbal wine in Hungary and is the leader of this market in the country. Their red and white wines are very famous and however mostly distributed only in Hungary, received international silver and golden medals, also. Since 1998 they are exporting their red and white wines to China, but the most liked products are the icewine and the healthy, herbal wine. Their plan is to find a permanent partner to operate a joint-venture winery in China, based on the Hungarian know-how and technology. In 2001 Zsombor Sümegi has started his Ph.D. research on the Chinese premium products and wine market. During a period of ten years he visited many parts of China and Taiwan to study wineries and the wine market, attended international conferences, trade fairs, worked in govermental cooperation projects between Hungary and China. In 2011 he finished his studies with “summa cum laude” degree and at the moment he is one of the few Chinese wine and premium market products expert in Eastern Europe. Due to his experiences in European and Asian markets this year he received the representative rights of the Hong Kong based Champion Technology company for Middle Eastern European region
